Commercial Metals Company

CMC Basic Materials Q3 2025

Operator
Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call for CMC. Joining me on today’s call are Peter Matt, CMC’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Paul Lawrence, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today’s materials, including the press release and supplemental slides that accompany this call can be found on CMC’s Investor Relations website. Today’s call is being recorded.
— Operator Instructions —
I would like to remind all participants that today’s discussion contains forward-looking statements, including with respect to economic conditions, effects of legislation and trade actions, U.S. steel import levels, construction activity, demand for finished steel products, the expected capabilities, benefits, cost and time line for construction of new facilities, the company’s operations, the company’s strategic growth plan and its anticipated benefits, legal proceedings, the company’s future results of operations, financial measures and capital spending. These statements reflect the company’s beliefs based on current conditions but are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company’s earnings release, most recent annual re- port on Form 10-K and other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission contain additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, CMC does not assume any obligation to update, amend or clarify these statements. Some numbers presented will be non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations for 1 such numbers can be found in the company’s earnings release, supplemental slide presentation or on the company’s website. Unless stated otherwise, all references made to year or quarter end are references to the company’s fiscal year or fiscal quarter. And now for opening remarks and introductions, I will turn the call over to Peter.
Peter Matt
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining CMC’s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Before jumping directly into a discussion of the quarter, I would like to take a moment to zoom out and offer some broader insights regarding where we see our company today, where we envision taking CMC in the future, and importantly, why we believe CMC offers a compelling investment thesis. Today, CMC is a leader in most of the markets in which we compete, supported by our exposure to attractive and growing geographies, strong customer relationships and exceptional operational capabilities. Additionally, our core domestic long steel markets are benefiting from industry consolidation and favorable trade policy which we believe will underpin structurally enhanced margins through the cycle. On the demand side, we expect powerful tailwinds from long-term secular trends that will drive construction investment for years to come. From this position of competitive strength and attractive end market exposure, we are now moving forward with the execution of a game-changing strategy intended to meaningfully and permanently enhance CMC’s financial profile and turbocharge value-accretive growth. We are aiming to deliver higher, more stable margins and cash flows through the cycle as well as a step change in returns on capital. I believe the strategic actions CMC is taking and the course we are traveling provides a compelling opportunity for investors. Successful execution of our strategy should result in margin and cash flow levels well above what we think are currently priced into our shares. 2 Now let’s jump into our third quarter results. CMC reported net earnings of $83.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share on net sales of $2 billion. The result included $1.3 million of after-tax charges, which Paul will take you through in more detail. Excluding these items, adjusted earnings were $84.4 million or $0.74 per diluted share. We generated consolidated core EBITDA of $204.1 million and a core EBITDA margin of 10.1%, both of which improved meaningfully on a sequential basis. We believe that the second quarter of fiscal 2025 marked a trough and expect business conditions for each segment will continue to improve from those levels. Turning now to CMC’s markets in North America, the construction and industrial activity that drive consumption of our products was resilient during the quarter, which resulted in year-over-year growth of finished steel shipments. Despite concerns regarding tariffs and related economic uncertainty, we experienced an encouraging degree of stability across each of our key internal leading indicators, including project bids, new awards and backlog volumes. Downstream bid volumes, our best gauge of the construction pipeline remained robust during the quarter and pointed to the continued accumulation of substantial amounts of pent-up demand across several nonresidential end markets which we believe should be unlocked by reduced economic uncertainty and lower interest rates. This observation is supported by on-the-ground activity and by the Dodge Momentum Index which sits near an all-time high and reflects improving planning activity in a broad range of nonresidential structures. We believe there are also signals indicating pent-up demand exists in the residential segment where despite uncertainty, higher rates and new household formation below expectations, single-family starts have been sustained at a rate above pre-COVID levels. Unlike the hesitation we are observing within certain areas of the nonresidential and residential market segments, demand from infrastructure activity is strengthening, particularly across our key Sunbelt states. 3 Remember, not only is this segment the single largest consumer of rebar, but it is also far less sensitive to economic concerns and the level of interest rates. We expect growth in infrastructure activity to continue for at least the next couple of years. In taking stock of the current situation, there is little doubt that the impact of economic uncertainty and elevated interest rates are hanging over our markets. But I would note 2 things. One, tariffs are just the latest flavor of uncertainty that the industry has had to manage through. and two, we have been living in a high interest rate environment for more than 2.5 years. Despite these factors, rebar consumption remains at a historically strong level of within 5% to 6% of the post-GFC peak. This trend highlights the attractive resilience of our primary end markets as well as the upside potential for demand if certain impediments are removed. Looking beyond the near-term environment, we continue to expect strong structural drivers to support construction activity over a multiyear period. These trends include investment in our nation’s infrastructure, reshoring industrial capacity, growth in energy generation and transmission, the build-out of AI infrastructure as well as addressing a U.S. housing shortage of 2 million to 4 million units. As noted on Slide 8 of the supplemental presentation, over $1.6 trillion of corporate investments across AI, manufacturing, shipping and logistics and energy have been an- nounced in calendar 2025. Commencement of even a handful of the related mega projects could provide a meaningful catalyst for rebar consumption in the months or quarters ahead. Moving on to profitability. We experienced a good sequential recovery in North American steel product metal margins during the quarter. Long steel pricing rebounded earlier in the calendar year on the back of a rising scrap market, and we have been able to maintain these higher levels even as scrap pricing declined significantly in April and May. We ex4 ited the quarter at a much higher margin level than we entered and given good seasonal demand and favorable trade backdrop, we expect to further expand margins through the fourth quarter. Before I move on to our other segments, I would like to briefly address the potential impact of tariffs on our business in North America. On the supply side, we are benefiting from a reduced level of steel imports into the domestic market as a result of the elimination of previous Section 232 exemptions and subsequent to the quarter end, an increase in – of the effective levy rate to 50%. While we do not know how long these policies will remain in effect, they should support steel pricing for their duration. On the demand side, we would separate the effect of the tariffs into near-term observed impacts and longer-term expected impacts. In the near term, as I already mentioned, there is increased uncertainty causing delays in some projects not under contract. From a longer-term perspective, we see tariffs as a single component of a broader program that includes changes to tax, regulatory energy and trade policy aimed at stimulating domestic investment which could meaningfully benefit construction activity. With regards to operating costs, we anticipate the impact of tariffs to be modest as we source primarily from domestic suppliers. The impact on capital costs should also be modest. In the case of Steel West Virginia, our largest capital project, almost all of the imported equipment is already in the U.S. I want to publicly thank our very capable procurement team for all of their efforts over the last 2.5 months. They were able to quickly digest and analyze each tariff twist and turn providing management with a clear understanding of the implications. While on the topic of trade, you may have already seen that an important trade case was filed with the U.S. International Trade Commission 2 weeks ago by a coalition of domestic rebar producers. The petition alleges exporters located in Algeria, Bulgaria, Egypt and 5 Vietnam, are guilty of dumping material into the U.S. market and should be subject to corrective duties ranging from 25% to over 160%. Preliminary rulings on the countervailing and antidumping complaints are due August 28 and November 11, respectively. Business conditions for our emerging businesses group are similar to those of our North America Steel Group, given a high degree of market overlap. During the quarter, we continued to see good levels of pipeline activity in the U.S. demonstrated by healthy quoting rates and reports that engineers remain busy planning and designing projects. That being said, we are seeing some hesitation among project owners to award new contracts and have experienced select project start delays. Again, similar to our North Amer- ica Steel Group, this is not a new dynamic. One attractive element of the EBG segment is the fact that our solutions are currently underpenetrated in the market, which provides significant opportunities for growth as we drive product adoption in addition to market expansion. In our key proprietary products, we are winning share through a strong value proposition while maintaining solid margins. During the quarter, shipments increased on a year-overyear basis for each of our primary proprietary offerings, including our InterAx, Geogrid, GalvaBar, ChromX, and CryoSTEEL reinforcing solutions as well as CMC anchoring systems. This is a strong indication that customers see the clear benefits these products bring to the job site. For example, our latest Geogrid solution is able to reduce construction cost duration and labor usage as well as CO2 emissions while extending the life of the asset being constructed. Our performance reinforcing steels make construction in difficult environments possible and are used where standard materials will fail. The lineup we offer reaches a broad spectrum of critical applications and generally features greater versatility and lower cost than competing products. We remain confident that the combination of further product 6 adoption and attractive end market exposures positions our emerging businesses group to achieve a consistent organic growth rate in the mid-single digits and EBITDA margins in the high teens. Shifting gears to our Europe Steel Group, conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace compared to recent periods, largely as a function of reduced import flows of long steel products and growing demand from construction end markets. Better balance in the steel market provided space for our team to increase shipments to the highest level in nearly 2 years and capitalize on expanded metal margins. Compared to the December low metal margins in May were over $40 per ton higher, a clear demonstration of improved business conditions. We believe margins should hold their recent gains in the months ahead. This view incorporates some pickup in import activity, which has begun to occur for certain products. Next, I would like to provide an update on the execution of CMC’s strategic plan. As we have stated previously, the goal of our strategy is to drive meaningful and permanent improvements to margins, cash flows and returns while reducing the volatility of our busi- ness. We are pursuing this objective along 3 paths: excellence in all we do, value-accretive organic growth and capability enhancing inorganic growth. Each path represents significant opportunity for CMC and the successful execution of all 3 will be game-changing in terms of the returns we generate on investment, the size of our company and ultimately, the value we create for investors. Taking each strategic effort in turn, I’ll start with excellence in all we do. We have discussed this publicly as our Transform, Advance and Grow or TAG program to drive oper- ational and commercial excellence, but it is more than that. Being excellent also means investing in our people to ensure CMC has the world-class team needed to execute all facets of our strategy and excel on a day-to-day basis. Focusing in on TAG, I am pleased 7 with the early success we have achieved during the first 3 quarters of execution. Benefits have exceeded our targets, and we are confident in the program’s potential to drive notable improvement to CMC’s financial metrics. As outlined on Slide 6, we expect our tag efforts to yield approximately $50 million of EBITDA benefit in fiscal year 2025 relative to a fiscal year 2024 baseline. Looking ahead, we believe that initiatives we are now executing against will provide annual run rate EBITDA benefits of over $100 million when fully realized. These numbers are impactful but do not capture the full scope of tag benefits we have planned. We are just getting started, and we’ll share more information and update our financial targets as the program progresses. These tag initiatives should help support higher EBITDA and through- the-cycle margins for our business with only modest amounts of incremental capital. Our next strategic path to discuss is value-accretive organic growth, which should represent a meaningful source of new earnings and cash flow over the next several years. par- ticularly as our Arizona 2 and Steel West Virginia mill investments reach full operations. We remain confident in the long-term success of both micro mill projects and expect a combined incremental EBITDA contribution of over $150 million compared to current levels. I would note that capital expenditures for both facilities are reflected in our capital base which has hindered CMC’s return on invested capital over the last several quarters. Achieving targeted run rate profitability for these 2 investments would improve our ROIC by approximately 150 basis points, all else equal. Importantly, we anticipate the completion of our Steel West Virginia micro mill will conclude CMC’s investments in new steelmaking capacity. With West Virginia in our footprint, CMC will operate a highly flexible manufacturing network featuring excellent geographical and product coverage and have no need of additional production capabilities for the foreseeable future. This best-in-class network is highly cash generative and allows us to 8 invest for growth in other attractive areas of the business. Beyond our mills, we are making investments to meet customer demand and strengthen our core offerings by growing our capabilities in more specialized solutions particularly within our EBG segment. These undertakings include the expansion of CMC’s post-tension cable production, adding a second GalvaBar coating line and increasing Geogrid manufacturing capacity. These investments and others like them require significantly less capital than our traditional steel business, but generate high returns on capital and strong cash flows. We are making good progress on these projects and expect each of them to be placed into service over the next 18 months. On the inorganic front, we remain interested in entering attractive adjacencies for our business where we believe we have an opportunity to offer immediate value given CMC’s current customer knowledge, market positioning, operational capabilities and the ability to win. We are targeting segments of the $150 billion early-stage construction market that touch the types of projects we are already servicing and feature higher, more stable margins. We anticipate these adjacent markets will also benefit from the mega trends that are expected to drive construction activity for years to come. To give you a better understanding of the types of assets we would consider, I’d like to share some high-level criteria we are using to evaluate inorganic opportunities. First, we won’t stress the balance sheet, and we’ll maintain a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 2x. The ideal target is likely within a valuation range of $500 million to $750 million, which is appropriately sized from an integration, financial and risk perspective. We want to establish a scalable business platform that offers increasing synergies as it grows, and it should have a high degree of geographical overlap with CMC’s existing operations. Financially, we are looking for businesses with EBITDA margins above 20% and free cash flow conversion above current CMC levels. Targets fitting this criteria exist in attractive 9 markets, and we will continue to prudently evaluate each opportunity. With that, I will turn it over to Paul.
Paul Lawrence
Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone on the call. As noted earlier, we reported fiscal third quarter 2025 net earnings of $83.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share compared to net earnings of $119.4 million and net earnings per diluted share of $1.02 in the prior year period. Excluding estimated net after-tax charges of approximately $1.3 million, adjusted earnings for the quarter totaled $84.4 million or $0.74 per diluted share compared to $119.6 million or $1.02 per diluted share, respectively, in the prior year period. These adjustments consisted of a $3.8 million pretax expense for interest on the judgment amount associated with the previously disclosed Pacific Steel Group litigation as well as a benefit from the settlement of a new market tax credit transaction. Consolidated core EBITDA was $204.1 million for the third quarter of 2025, representing a decline from the $256.1 million generated during the prior year period. Slide 12 of the supplemental presentation illustrates the year-to-year changes in CMC’s quarterly financial performance. Profitability at our North American Steel Group was negatively impacted by lower margins over scrap, while adjusted EBITDA at both our Europe Steel Group and Emerging Business Group increased compared to the third quarter of 2024. Consolidated core EBITDA margin of 10.1% compared to 12.3% in the prior year period. CMC’s North American Steel Group generated adjusted EBITDA of $186 million for the quarter, equal to $161 per ton of finished steel shipped. Segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 24% compared to the prior year period, driven primarily by lower margin over scrap cost on steel and downstream products. North Amer- 10 ican Steel Group adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% compares to 14.7% in the third quarter of 2024. Segment results improved on a sequential quarter basis as steel product margins expanded from their recent lows, and we experienced normal seasonal strength in volumes. As Peter mentioned, we believe our fiscal second quarter represented the trough for our financial performance, and we see improving volume and margin conditions ahead as we move through the 2025 construction season. It’s important to note that we exited the third quarter at a steel product metal margin of $518 per ton, which is $19 per ton higher than the quarter average. The combination of this higher exit rate, additional scrap cost reductions flowing through and selling price increases should result in further metal margin expansion during the fourth quarter. Segment results benefited also from a number of CAG initiatives, including scrap optimization, alloy consumption reduction, process yield improvements and logistics optimization. In recent quarters, we have reported unrealized losses related to our hedging positions in copper derivatives. The impact of these positions on the third quarter were not material. As indicated earlier, demand for long steel products was resilient during the quarter. Average daily shipments of finished steel increased by 3.2% compared to a year ago, while combined daily rebar shipments from CMC’s mill and downstream operations grew by approximately 1.3%. Emerging Business Group third quarter net sales of $197.5 million increased by 4.7% on a year-over-year basis, while adjusted EBITDA of $40.9 million increased by 7%. The improvement was largely driven by strong demand for proprietary products within CMC’s performance reinforcing steel division. This business has had success in penetrating several major infrastructure projects requiring enhanced lifespan, strength and corrosion- resistant characteristics. A higher mix of sales from performance reinforcing steel within 11 EBG’s total sales as well as continued adoption of Tensar’s latest Geogrid solutions led to a 40 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Financial performance of CMC’s Tensar division was down modestly from a year ago due to delays in certain projects. However, I would note that the pipeline of Tensar remains solid, and we expect to reestablish growth on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the Construction Services and CMC impact metal divisions were little changed from a year ago. It is also worth noting that following several challenging quarters for Impact’s core truck and trailer market, conditions have stabilized and are beginning to show early signs of recovery. Turning to Slide 15 of the supplemental deck, our Europe Steel Group reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.6 million for the third quarter of 2025 compared to a loss of $4.2 million in the prior year period. The improvement was driven by ongoing cost management efforts and a robust increase in shipment volumes. Similar to recent quarters, the team in Poland continued to drive efficiency gains throughout the operations, with success in nearly every major cost category, including the labor actions discussed last quarter, consumable usage, maintenance and overhead. These efforts have allowed the Europe Steel Group to remain roughly cash flow breakeven within a challenging market backdrop. Most of these improvements are permanent in nature and set us up well to capitalize on a market recovery. As Peter mentioned, during the quarter, we saw continued demand growth and a pullback in the levels of long steel imports into Poland. The combination of these 2 factors provided CMC the opportunity to achieve stronger shipping volumes. Moving to the balance sheet. As of May 31, cash and cash equivalents totaled $893 mil12 lion. In addition, we had approximately $834 million of availability under our credit and accounts receivable facilities bringing total liquidity to just over $1.7 billion. Our cash position was augmented by the successful issuance of $150 million of tax-exempt bonds connected to CMC’s Steel West Virginia project. This financing was raised in conjunction with the West Virginia Economic Development Authority and was priced at a very attractive rate of 4.625%. During the quarter, we generated $154.4 million of cash from operating activities, which included a $19.7 million usage of cash for working capital. Capital expenditures of $89.5 million were largely driven by construction activity related to our Steel West Virginia micro mill project. At quarter end, CMC’s leverage and liquidity metrics remain very attractive. We believe our robust balance sheet and overall financial strength provide us the flexibility to finance our strategic organic growth projects and pursue opportunistic M&A while continuing to return cash to shareholders. Turning to CMC’s fiscal 2025 capital spending outlook. We now expect to invest between $425 million and $475 million in total. This is down from our previous guidance of between $550 million and $600 million, with the reduction related to the timing of certain expenditures at CMC’s West Virginia project that have been delayed due to 2 primary factors: the first factor relates to the pursuit and attainment of available tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, which is expected to yield net benefits of approximately $80 million. To obtain these credits, CMC had to meet several criteria, causing us to temporarily slow construction as we evaluated contracts and vendor arrangements. The second factor is the impact of weather delays incurred at the site. We have lost around 70 days of construction. Based on updated project schedule, we expect to begin melt shop production during the spring of calendar 2026. As outlined on past earnings calls, CMC targets a prudent and balanced approach to capital allocation. Our first priority 13 is value accretive growth that furthers our strategy and strengthens our business. Coming in a close second is providing our shareholders with an attractive level of cash distributions in the form of both dividends and share repurchases. To this end, CMC returned approximately $71 million to our shareholders during the third quarter. CMC repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares at an average price of $45.30 per share. As of May 31, we had $254.9 million available for repurchase under the current authorization. This concludes my remarks, and I’ll now turn it back to Peter for additional comments on CMC’s financial outlook.
Peter Matt
Thank you, Paul. We expect consolidated financial results in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 to improve compared to the third quarter. Finished steel shipments within the North America Steel Group are anticipated to follow normal seasonal trends, while our adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to increase sequentially on higher steel product margins over scrap. Based on project backlog, we expect financial results for the emerging businesses group will improve on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis. Our Europe Steel Group will receive a CO2 credit of approximately $28 million during the fourth quarter as a result of a recently signed Polish legislation that divided payments related to calendar 2024 energy cost rebates into 2 tranches. We will receive the second tranche related to the calendar 2024 credit during the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Excluding this credit, adjusted EBITDA for our Europe Steel Group should increase sequentially in the fourth quarter as we continue to benefit from improved market fundamentals and extensive cost management efforts. I am confident in CMC’s long-term outlook and continue to believe in our ability to generate significant value for our shareholders. We are executing on several strategic initiatives, which we believe will deliver meaningful 14 and sustained enhancements to our margins, cash flow and return on capital. We will achieve this by leveraging our tag operational and commercial excellence program to get more out of our existing enterprise completing value-accretive organic growth projects and adding complementary early-stage construction solutions that provide attractive new growth platforms. Taken together, we believe these efforts will position our company to take full advantage of powerful structural trends in the domestic construction market for years to come. I would like to conclude by thanking our customers for their trust and confidence in CMC and all of our employees for delivering yet another quarter of very solid safety and operational performance.
Operator
— Operator Instructions — Your first question comes from Sathish Kasinathan with Bank of America.
Sathish Kasinathan
My first question is on the steel products volumes in the North American segment. It seems the steel product volumes were only up like 7% sequentially in the third quarter versus the typical seasonal pickup of like 10% to 15%. Can you please talk about like what drove that? And is it timing of shipments? Or did you see impact related to the outages that you had in the third quarter? And as a follow-up, how should we think about the fourth quarter volumes for the segment, both for steel products as well as downstream products?
Peter Matt
Thanks, Sathish. Appreciate the question. It’s a good one. So I just want to put out there 15 that overall, we are pleased with our Q3 performance in North America, but it wasn’t our best performance. We had some outages late in the quarter. And coming out of those outages, you know, there’s always some challenges associated with that. We didn’t come out of those outages as well as we could have. And as a consequence, we ended up not having the production that we were aiming for. We ended up with lower inventories and consequently higher costs. So that together with the impact of the flow-through of scrap timing in our results more than explains the miss in the North American Steel Group in terms of shipment volumes and in terms of profitability relative to the consensus out there. I think – the bottom line is that we’re a company of great operators. We’ve kind of circled back in each of these situations. We understand exactly what happened, and we’re set for a strong fourth quarter. So we feel very good about where we are. In terms of fourth quarter volumes, I think you can expect them to be flattish to slightly up from where we are in the third quarter. And yes, should – the volume should follow a normal seasonal trend.
Paul Lawrence
Sathish, the only thing I would add is when we talk about finished steel tons, we combine steel products and downstream products because essentially, all those are coming off the mills, whether it’s through directly to mill customers or to our own customers through the downstream sales. And those were up 10% in alignment with normal volume trends between Q2 and Q3.
Sathish Kasinathan
Yes, understood. Maybe my second question is on the U.S. rebar pricing. We saw mills around a $60 price hike recently. Are you seeing prices gaining traction? And do you see further room for additional price hikes given where the import offers are? 16
Peter Matt
Yes. It’s a great question. I want to just start by saying we don’t talk directly about price, but I will make a few comments around this one. Look, as a company, we are in pursuit of commercial excellence. And what I mean by that is value over volume. We said that on prior calls, and that’s – it’s a maniacal focus for our company. In the context of the current situation, there’s a balance that we have to strike. It’s a balance between doing what – are creating the best value for CMC and generating a good return on the sales that we’re making. And secondly, balancing what’s right for the customer; and thirdly, incentivizing Buy America. So we think we struck the right balance in coming up with the move that we made. This is something that we evaluate on a regular basis. We’re going to continue to monitor it, and we’ll make adjustments as appropriate.
Operator
And your next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas.
Tristan Gresser
First one, just on volumes as well. If you could provide us maybe an update on Arizona 2, the average utilization rate for this quarter and maybe the target for the next fiscal year. And if I understand your comment correctly about the plus $150 million EBITDA improvement, would that mean that the facility is currently still at breakeven?
Peter Matt
Yes, absolutely. So on Arizona 2, we made very good progress during the quarter, and I’m pleased with what the team has done that. We organized what we call internally a blitz. And the blitz was really a combination of resources internally and externally to kind of drive the business to generate – or to prove that it can operate where we think it can operate and that it can do so in a reliable way. 17 I would say that the equipment is – we’re most of the way through kind of our confidence in the equipment. And we have a good line of sight to be able to say that we are fully through the equipment issues that we’ve had. And I’m also really pleased with the fact that we got our MBQ up to a run rate where we’re producing 75% of the SKUs by volume at the plant. So remember, this is the first plant ever to produce merchant bar quality products. As we exit the year from where we sit today, we think we’re going to be exiting at around 70% to 75% utilization. And – but I know that’s a little bit below what we’ve said before. But I think given some of the challenges we’ve had and the focus that we put on merchant bar it makes sense to come out where we are. And we are confident that we can get the rest of the way there in early 2026. And I would also say that we do expect to have a profit in the fourth quarter at Arizona 2. So all in all, good progress. We’re working extremely hard, and I’m really proud of the job that the team has done to get to where we are.
Tristan Gresser
All right. That’s very clear. And maybe the targeted mix for next year? Do you expect to still be very MBQ-driven mix? Or what would be the right way to think about it versus rebar?
Peter Matt
Yes. I think that’s going to emerge with the market conditions. As you know, the capacity of the plant is 500,000 tons, and our original plan was to make 350,000 of rebar and 150,000 of merchant bar. So I’d say kind of ordinary market conditions permitting, that’s still our plan. But again, what’s nice about this mill is that we have the flexibility to adjust to market conditions. So if the rebar market is a little bit softer or the MBQ market is a little bit softer, we can adjust one way or the other to accommodate that.
Tristan Gresser
18 All right. That’s very clear. And maybe one last question just on West Virginia. I just wanted to confirm that the ramp up – I’m not sure I understood correctly, it’s been delayed by 6 months, it’s planned for the summer next year. I understand you explained it with the tax rebate and some weather issues, but has some part of that decision also been driven by maybe a less robust near-term outlook? I mean when you look at domestic supply, you have 2 new mail ramping up in Q3, Q4 calendar and demand is not particularly great. So has that had any impact in your decision there? And also given the push how should we think about maybe CapEx for next year, that would be helpful, the next fiscal year.
Peter Matt
Yes. And I’ll let Paul take the CapEx question. But let me first start out on West Virginia. So timing, we said first half. We’re going to start – there’s a cold commissioning phase. There’s a hot commissioning phase. We’re going to be doing the hot commissioning phase kind of in the first half of the year. So – and the timing on this is really – these are – it’s a good thing that we came across this 48C thing, and the team did a phenomenal job in getting this grant from the Department of Energy, and it was worth waiting for this. And what we needed to do and what caused the delay was we needed to work through some of our processes internally to make sure that we could comply with the Department of Energy requirements. But as a consequence, we’re getting $80 million towards this project. And what’s the benefit of that? Well, it reduces the net capital that we put into the project and therefore, helps us drive higher returns. And hopefully, you’re seeing a consistent pattern here of our focus is on changing the return profile of the company. And in getting a grant like this, it absolutely helps us do this. The timing has nothing to do with the conditions in the market. We are actually quite optimistic about market conditions. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there today, but we 19 believe that kind of things are going to stabilize and in the stabilization of things you’re going to see emerge the demand for our rebar products, our merchant bar products that’s consistent with what we’ve been saying for the last several quarters. You’ve got some megatrends in whether it’s infrastructure, reshoring energy transition, all of which we talked about that I think are going to drive demand, and we’re going to be ready to receive it.
Paul Lawrence
Let me just add to Peter’s comment around the investment tax credit. The project qualified for the tax credit under the IRA and there’s been no concern around this type of credit being clawed back. The credit could be either a 6% credit or a 30% credit. And so the magnitude of the difference is significant. And that’s why we paused the contracting of work to ensure that we contracted in such a way to comply with the requirements of the – of attaining the higher rate, and we’re now confident that we will, in fact, get that higher rate credit. And so that will provide, as we said in the prepared remarks, a net $80 million benefit to us next year. So with the delays, we’ve spoken many times around our expectation of normal ongoing CapEx, and that’s going to be sort of maintenance plus core, smaller organic growth in the $250 million range and then we would expect around $300 million associated to West Virginia next year. So as it looks right now, our CapEx for West Virginia – or for total for CMC will be in the $550 million range for next year.
Operator
And your next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.
Katja Jancic
Maybe starting on the inorganic growth. Peter, you mentioned that the ideal transaction value would be somewhere between $500 million to $750 million. Can you talk a little 20 bit about what type of multiples would be attached to that?
Peter Matt
Yes. Great question, Katja. Thank you very much. It depends based on the assets that we’re looking at. But what I would say is that the multiples generally for these businesses are higher than what CMC trades at. And I want to make a couple of points about that because I think this is really important. One is the multiples for those businesses are higher because they’re worth it. And what I mean by that is these are companies that have higher margins, better cash flow characteristics because they’re lower capital intensity and in most cases, some growth to them given some of the market trends that they’re responding to. So I do think that the businesses are worth, the higher multiples that we may have to pay in this situation. The other thing that I think is really important when we talk about inorganic, and I know it wasn’t directly your question, but I’m going to throw it out there is that we’re going to be very disciplined about our inorganic growth and particularly recognizing that we’re paying higher multiples for some of these businesses. And the discipline that we are going to hold ourselves to is that over a reasonable amount of time, say, 3, 4 years we are going to bring the effective multiple that we pay down to our multiple, down to CMC’s multiple, that’s going to happen through a combination of synergies that we might bring to the table and growth. And if we can do that, we will create significant value in those acquisitions. And that’s – again, that assumes 0 multiple expansion for CMC, which as we grow the portfolio of these value-added businesses, theoretically, we should enjoy some multiple expansion. So I know that’s beyond what you asked, but I wanted to get it out on the table because I think it’s important that everyone understands that.
Katja Jancic
21 That’s excellent. And maybe just as a follow-up. Is there – when you look at the current pipeline, how does it look? And do you have any – I know this is hard to answer or impossible, but is there any time line on when you could complete a deal of this size?
Peter Matt
Yes. Good question. Thank you. The pipeline is good. I would say there are a number of different businesses that we’ve been looking at, and there are kind of processes that we are engaged in right now. Some of them are quite mature. Some of them are really just starting. I would say, in general, these processes are moving slower given some of the uncertainty in the market, but they are moving forward. And we are – we’ve done a lot of work. I think we – as a company, we know what we want to do. So this is really a matter of kind of matching terms with a seller on terms that are acceptable to us, and then we’ll be ready to proceed. But we’re ready. And as you say, it is hard to call the exact timing, but I would say we’re ready.
Operator
Your next question comes from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs
You outlined a $28 million credit for Europe in the fourth quarter and essentially said there was likely to be more in the first quarter. Can we have an idea of what that may be?
Peter Matt
Yes. Well, so what this is, is that our team in Poland, again, this is just another example of a great job that they do. They get the CO2 credit annually. And the CO2 credit typically pays out with an 11-month lag. So that’s what we get it in November, which is our – obviously, in our Q1. Through the good efforts of the team in Poland, what we’ve been able to do is to get this changed so that the payments will now be split in two. 22 The first payment in an ordinary year this year, it will be in July. But in an ordinary year, it will be paid in May, will be 60% of the CO2 credit and the balance will continue to be paid in November. That will be the remaining 40%. So what we’re seeing in the first early installment, which will, again, as I said, be paid in July, is the $28 million, which is 60% and it’s roughly – we’re assuming it’s kind of staying consistent with last year’s CO2 credit, which, as you know, that CO2 credit will vary depending on the cost of CO2 embedded in the energy cost.
Paul Lawrence
So I guess the key is we anticipate that each fiscal year we will receive 1 year’s worth of CO2 credits into the future, split into 2 installments with the difference being essentially a catch-up that we’ll get this year, which will get the extra payment in fiscal ’25.
Philip Gibbs
Okay. So we’re likely to get $15 million to $20 million in Q1, and there’s likely to be some then paid in the fourth quarter of ’26?
Paul Lawrence
Third or fourth quarter, yes. That’s right.
Peter Matt
May is the technical time line for payment.
Philip Gibbs
Okay. And with regards to the CapEx number you gave for next year, Paul, the $550 million. Was that a gross number, meaning before the $80 million you outlined? Or was that after the $80 million?
Paul Lawrence
That is gross. And then – so we would expect gross CapEx in the $550 million range, the 23 benefit of the tax credit to be $80 million to CMC and then other incentives will probably be in the $20 million, $25 million range that we will receive as well.
Philip Gibbs
Okay. So roughly $450 million in that. Are you getting anything in the fourth quarter of the year?
Paul Lawrence
We will probably get – it’s all timing. We’ll likely get a $25 million credit in the fourth quarter as well.
Philip Gibbs
Okay. In addition to the $100 million to $105 million that you outlined?
Paul Lawrence
That’s right.
Philip Gibbs
Okay. And the last one here is the timing of the start-up of the West Virginia mill, sounds like it’s mid-calendar ’26. So the start-up costs associated with that mill will be largely back-end loaded, pretty like very back-end loaded, I guess, for next year, for the fiscal year ?
Peter Matt
I think that’s a fair assumption.
Paul Lawrence
Yes. We’ll carry some team as we start to employ people throughout the year, but similar to other mill start-ups that we’ve had.
Philip Gibbs
24 And is there any CapEx from West Virginia then because of the slight delay that get moved into ’27?
Paul Lawrence
Relatively small amounts.
Operator
And your next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.
William Peterson
On Europe, the fiscal third quarter saw diversion between rebar and MBQ sequentially. Should we think of this reversing in the fourth fiscal quarter? And I guess, how should we think about overall shipments directionally?
Peter Matt
You’re saying in Europe?
William Peterson
Yes.
Peter Matt
In Europe, yes. So we expect shipments in Europe to continue at a strong pace in the fourth quarter. And I think you were also asking about the mix of MBQ and rebar, and we expect MBQ shipments to be strong in the fourth quarter. We’ve done a lot of work on mix there based on where the profitability is back to the kind of commercial excellence story that I was telling before, and we’re really focused on optimizing our mix to the products where the best margin is. And this year, that’s been MBQ.
Paul Lawrence
We’re seeing a lot of projects come to market, certainly starting to see initial benefits of 25 some of the EU money that is coming into the marketplace. So we are expecting some increase in volume in the fourth quarter, which really is similar to a seasonal uptick in fourth quarter volumes that the EU marketplace sees.
Peter Matt
And just to put a little bit more color on what Paul is saying. The picture in Europe does appear to be getting better. And let me talk about a couple of different fronts. One is you’ve got in Poland, the economy obviously continues to chug along very nicely there. But the government’s now put in place a new infrastructure spending program. And when you kind of look at that by the projects that they’re going to be investing in, we’re talking about kind of hundreds of thousands of tons over the next couple of years. So that’s going to be a nice shot in the arm. You may have also read articles about there’s – Poland’s first nuclear power plant is going to be built. This is maybe a little bit lagged in terms of timing. It’s probably going to start construction, my guess would be in ’27. But again, that’s going to be a big consumer of rebar. And to Paul’s point, you’ve got recovery and resilience funding going on. The other thing that I think is really important to note is it appears that things are moving nicely in Germany. And we talked about – last time, we talked about the fact that there’s the infrastructure build a $500 billion of – or EUR 500 billion – excuse me, infrastructure bill and the lifting of the cap on spending on defense. And Chancellor Merz has been very strong in his statements about in the case of defense spending, we need to do whatever it takes. And in the case of the economy getting the economy back on track, our understanding is that he’s making a really strong push on infrastructure spending and stimulus to some of the segments of nonresidential spending. So as a consequence, what we were saying, I think, on the last call was we expected we’d see that in the kind of mid- to back part of ’26. We’ve heard discussions recently that 26 suggest that we could start seeing some of that as early as the fourth calendar quarter of ’25 and into the early part of ’26. So again, we need to see it on the ground, but I just pointed out because there are reasons for optimism in Europe.
William Peterson
Yes. Great. And I realize you don’t want to be precise around pricing. But in terms of the backlog, I think last quarter, you mentioned that project awards were benefiting from higher prices. How should we think about when that shows up and or pricing for, I guess, what’s entering the backlog now higher than existing prices that are in the backlog?
Peter Matt
Yes, you’re talking about on the fabrication side?
William Peterson
Correct.
Peter Matt
Yes. So what I’d say – thanks for the question. It’s a great question. So Q3 was competitive. And we saw the booking prices continued to slide during the quarter. But as we go into Q4, we expect that we’re going to see that turn and the booking prices are going to start to increase in sympathy with the move in rebar prices. That’s typically the way it flows. And I want to just take a minute here to really highlight the great job that our fabrication team across the company has done in this market environment. And it’s really important because they are taking this business and they are helping us make it even better than it is today. And there are 3 things that I want to point out here that I’m really optimistic about. One is through tag and operational excellence, a lot of new initiatives are coming in the fabrication business and we see opportunity for that business to be stronger. Secondly, they are 27 absolutely paying attention to our mantra of value over volume. And what we’re seeing is we are seeing our rebar fab guys walk away from jobs where it does not make sense because we cannot generate a return on the investment that we have and that is I am super proud of the discipline, the market discipline that the team is showing. And the third thing that I want to really compliment them on is addressing some of the duration risk in this business. Those of you that have been following us for a long time know that we do take duration risk in this business, and it can lead to periods where the fabrication business is less or not profitable. I’m pleased to say that by focusing on this duration risk and by that, I mean insisting that we have proper escalators to compensate us for the duration risk we’re taking we are making this business a better business. And I think a great source of evidence of that is the fact that we will go through the trough of this cycle in fabrication and be a profitable business. And our goal is that we’re going to increase that bar. We’re going to raise that bar over time and make this a better business. So look, this is something – and again, I’m sorry, I know you didn’t ask for all this, but I think it’s really important, and I’m super proud of our team, and this is not something that’s going to happen overnight. But I think it’s going to help this business be better over time. So thanks for the question.
Operator
And your next question comes from Mike Harris with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Harris
I guess just given your strong financial position, why didn’t you buy back more shares during the third quarter? And maybe speak to how we should think about the cadence of repurchases going forward, considering that it looks like you’ve averaged roughly $50 million per quarter in repurchases since maybe the second fiscal quarter of ’24? 28
Peter Matt
Yes. Good question. I’ll start, and then I’ll let – Paul can jump in on this. But – so look, we do have a strong financial position. We’re also kind of working on some strategic initiatives around growth. And one of the things that’s absolutely critical to us is that we maintain a strong financial position while we grow. So as we kind of understand where we’re going from a growth perspective, I think that will help reorient us in terms of what we have the capacity to do on the share repurchase side. Maybe Paul can pick up there.
Paul Lawrence
Yes. I think we’ve stated our capital allocation priorities clearly, number 1 is growth. And most recently, that’s been through the organic growth side. But as Peter outlined, we have aspirations in the inorganic. But Beyond that, we also have stated repeatedly a balanced approach to capital allocation, citing a commitment to return attractive levels of cash to shareholders. And so, we announced the buyback program in January of ’24 and said, our plans was to execute that over a period of 2 to 3 years, and that’s the course that we’re on, and we don’t see any change in the execution of our commitment on that.
Operator
And at this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Matt, I’ll now turn the call back over to you.
Peter Matt
Thank you. And just a few concluding remarks from me. At CMC, we remain confident that our best days are ahead. The combination of the structural demand trends we have noted, operational and commercial excellence initiatives to strengthen our through-thecycle performance and value-accretive growth opportunities create an exciting future for our company. We are committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy that includes investments in our company’s future and a return of capital to our shareholders. Thank 29 you for joining us on today’s conference call. We look forward to speaking with many of you during our investor calls and meetings in the coming days and weeks. Thank you.
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect. Copyright © 2025, S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved 30