First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

FWRG Consumer Cyclical Q4 2024

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates under the Daytime Dining concept, specifically catering to breakfast, brunch, and lunch. The company has established itself as a leading player in this niche, serving made-to-order meals using fresh ingredients across more than 570 locations in the United States.

In its most recent quarterly report for Q4 2024, First Watch reported total revenues of $263.3 million, marking a 7.6% increase from the prior year period, which reported revenues of $244.6 million. However, the company’s same-restaurant sales declined by 0.3%, with same-restaurant traffic declining by 3%. The income from operations for the fourth quarter decreased to $3.9 million with an operating margin of 1.5%, a decline from the previous year’s margin of 2.8%.

The restaurant-level operating profit was $49.0 million, up from $46.8 million year-over-year, demonstrating a slight margin decrease, from 19.4% to 18.8%. The Q4 adjusted EBITDA was reported at $24.3 million, slightly down from $24.6 million in the same period last year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.2%, compared to 10.1% in Q4 2023. Net income for the quarter was $700,000, down from $2.6 million in the prior year.

First Watch opened a total of 25 new system-wide restaurants during the fourth quarter, contributing to a total of 572 restaurants at the close of Q4 2024, a significant milestone that includes both company-owned and franchise locations. The overall operating costs increased to 98.5% of total revenues, compared to 97.2% a year prior.

Looking ahead, First Watch provides guidance for 2025, forecasting same-restaurant sales growth in the positive low-single digits and total revenue growth of approximately 20%. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to fall within a range of $124 million to $130 million. There are plans to open between 59 to 64 net new system-wide restaurants while closing three company-owned locations due to lease expirations. First Watch’s capital expenditures are estimated between $150 million to $160 million, focused on new restaurant projects and remodel efforts.

In summary, while First Watch is experiencing negative same-restaurant sales and traffic metrics, it continues to expand its footprint and can report strong overall revenue growth alongside climbing operating profits, albeit with some margin pressure.