Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Franco-Nevada Corporation’s 2024 Year-end Results Conference Call and Webcast. This call is being recorded on March 10, 2025. — Operator In-
structions —
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Candida Hayden
Thank you, Joanna. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Franco-Nevada’s year-end 2024 results. Accompanying this call is a presentation, which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you will also find our full financial results. The presentation is also available to view on the webcast. During our call this morning, Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada, will provide introductory remarks, followed by Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer, who will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by a Q&A period. Our full executive team is available to answer any questions. Participants may submit questions by the telephone or via the webcast. We would like to remind participants that some of today’s commentary may contain forward-looking information, and we refer you to our detailed cautionary note on Slide 2 of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada. 1
Paul Brink
Thanks, Candida. Good morning. First of all, welcome to Daniel Malchuk, who joined our Board in January. Daniel is an experienced director and spent much of his executive career at BHP, including roles heading operations in the markets running the copper, aluminum and nickel and manganese businesses and heading the exploration division. Daniel’s Chilean, based on Santiago, and I’m sure he’ll add valuable perspectives on many of the assets and the countries in which we invest. We ended the year well with a strong fourth quarter. GEO sales for the year were near the top end of our revised year guidance range. The tailwind from rising gold prices, we had higher quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income compared to Q4 2023 even without a contribution from Cobre Panama. 2024 was the most active year in our history for business development. Eaun and the team entered into more than $1.3 billion in acquisitions and commitments during the year. Transactions included gold stream investment in Cascabel and Ecuador, a royalty on the Yanacocha Gold Mine in Peru and principally Goldstream on Sibanye’s Western and PGM operations in South Africa. All of them high-quality ore bodies with potential to be very long-life mines. One of our largest portfolio successes in 2024 was the completion of construction and commercial operation of Tocantinzinho in Brazil, where we have a 12.5% gold stream. No surprise, the mine built by the G-Mining team was on time and on budget. Rather than just providing stream financing, Franco-Nevada is the financial backer of GM Ventures, having provided extreme debt and equity components. TZ is only the first of many mines G mine will build and Franco, a strong financial banking for the full year. In January, we announced a second partnership based on the same principles, a financing package to support Discovery Silver’s acquisition of Newmont’s Porcupine complex 2 in Timmins, including a royalty, credit facility and backing for their equity raise. Tony Makuch and team are absolutely the right group to revitalize Porcupine assets and realize the tremendous potential that still remains in the camp. This is possibly only the first move to consolidate operations in the camp and with financial banking from Franco, Discovery is well positioned for those next steps. The acquisitions of the last 12 months have the potential to add 85,000 to 95,000 GEOs per annum medium-term production profile, almost all gold ounces. With these new additions, along with organic growth from our existing portfolio, these drive the growth outlined in our 2025 guidance and outlook for the next 5 years. For 2025, the new contributions from Sibanye’s Western Limb operations and Porcupine and full year contributions from Yanacocha, TZ, Greenstone and Salares Norte will have a big impact. Some of the highlights for the longer-term outlook are high silver contributions from Antamina and new gold ounces from the start-up of Valentine Gold, Eskay Creek and Stibnite Gold. With Sandip’s management of our balance sheet, all the acquisitions were or will be, when the Discovery deal closes, funded from our cash balances, and we’ll still have no debt and a substantial cash balance. Our growing operating cash flows also allowed us to increase dividends for the 18th consecutive time in January this year. Cumulative dividends since IPO are now greater than $2.5 billion. Our business development team could do with a breakout to all the activity in the last 12 months, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. We have actual opportunities that could add more attractive assets this year. Finally, I’m very encouraged by the developments in panel. President Mulino has indicated a willingness to discuss Cobre Panama this year, and sentiment in Panama now 3 appears more supportive of restarting the mine. I think there are good odds, we’ll see positive progress this year. With that, I’ll hand the call over to Sandip.
Sandip Rana
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. As Paul mentioned, Franco-Nevada ended the year with a strong fourth quarter, which was the result of both strong production from our asset base and higher precious metal prices. Precious metal prices with gold in particular, reached record highs in 2024. On Slide 4, you will see the comparison of commodity prices for both fourth quarter and full year 2024. Gold and silver prices increased significantly for both periods with gold higher by 34.7% in the quarter and 22.9% for the year. Prices for palladium, iron ore and oil continue to be volatile and were lower year-over-year. Slide 5 provides a recap of the company’s performance against the revised guidance provided for last year. The updated guidance for 2024 provided for a range of 445,000 to 465,000 total GEOs sold. Of this total, the company guided 340,000 to 360,000 precious metal GEOs with the balance being from diversified assets. With the strong finish to the end of the year, the company ended the year with 463,334 GEOs sold, which was near the top end of the guidance range. We were also at the top end of the guidance range for precious metals with 355,280 GEOs sold. The diversified assets, which include our nonprecious metal mining assets and energy assets resulted in just over 108,000 GEOs sold for the year. I’d like to point out that the revenue generated from our diversified assets was actually in line with our expectations for the year. However, with a 37% higher average gold price in 2024 than our $1,950 budgeted gold price when converting to GEOs sold, it actually resulted in a loss of 21,000 4 GEOs than if the gold price had remained at our budget prices. Turning to Slide 6, you’ll see the 2023 and 2024 fourth quarter comparisons for GEO sold, revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Total GEOs sold were $120,063 in fourth quarter compared to $152,351 in fourth quarter 2023. Precious metal GEOs sold in fourth quarter 2024 were $95,565, higher by 5% compared to prior year when excluding Cobre Panama. For the fourth quarter, we received strong contributions from Candelaria and benefited from the continued ramp-up of new mines Tocantinzinho and Greenstone. Candelaria delivered 26,891 GEOs for the quarter, which was almost 70% higher than prior year and twice as many GEOs as Q3 2024. Diversified GEOs sold were $24,298 for the quarter compared to $32,770 for prior year despite diversified revenue being flat year-over-year. The approximate 8,000 GEOs sold difference is due to the impact of GEO conversion using higher gold prices. Total revenue for the quarter was $321 million compared to $303.3 million last year, a 5.8% increase. Precious metals accounted for 79% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was 9% higher for the quarter at $277.4 million compared to $254.6 million in fourth quarter 2023. As you turn to Slide 7, you’ll see a new measure that we have presented in our year-end financial results. It is called net GEOs. As we look at our royalty and streaming business, we think it’s important to evaluate contributions from assets based on margin contribution and not necessarily top line measures. Royalty GEOs are higher-margin GEOs as there is minimal cost associated with each GEO sold versus a stream where an ongoing fixed payment is required. The measure net GEOs removes the cost of sales component for all GEOs so that all GEOs sold are represented after cost. For Q4 2024, net GEOs were $107,140 for Franco-Nevada compared to $129,527 in Q4 2023. Slide 8 highlights the key financial metrics used by the company. As mentioned, total GEOs sold were 120,063, generating $321 million in revenue in fourth quarter. With re5 spect to costs, we did have a decrease in cost of sales compared to Q4 2023 due to less stream ounces sold, which is predominantly related to the absence of Cobre Panama. Depletion decreased to $60 million versus $68.9 million a year ago. Depletion is based on actual mining GEO sold and barrels of oil equivalent received on the energy side of the business. As we received less GEOs from Cobre Panama and Antapaccay, this impacted depletion as those assets are higher per ounce depletion assets. Adjusted net income was $183.3 million or $0.95 per share for the quarter, up 6% and 5%, respectively, versus prior year. Slide 9 highlights the continued diversification of the portfolio. 76.5% of our full year 2024 revenue was generated by precious metals, with revenue being sourced 83.9% from the Americas. Our largest contributor to revenue was Candelaria at 14.6% for the full year. Slide 10 illustrates the strength of our business model to generate high margins. For full year 2024, cash cost per GEO, which is essentially cost of sales divided by gold equivalent ounces sold, is $278 per GEO. This compares to $286 per GEO in 2023. For the quarter, the cash cost per ounce was $287 compared to $296 in the fourth quarter of 2023. As the gold price has risen, Franco-Nevada has seen a significant increase in our margin per GEO. Margin was $2,375 per GEO in Q4 2024. We’ve always stated that in a rising commodity price environment, we expect to benefit fully as the cost per GEO sold should not increase significantly. With respect to the company’s GEO sold guidance for 2025, please refer to Slide 11. For 2025, we are guiding total GEOs sold of between 465,000 to 525,000, which is a 7% increase over 2024. If we use constant pricing between 2025 and 2024, the increase would be 13% year-over-year. Of this range, we are guiding 385,000 to 425,000 precious metal GEOs for the year. This is a 14% increase in precious metal GEOs over 2024. The overall main drivers for GEOs year-over-year are for precious metals will benefit from 6 contributions from recent acquisitions, Sibanye Western Limb Mining operation stream, Porcupine Complex Royalty and Yanacocha Royalty. We will continue to benefit from the ramp-up of new mines that began production in 2024, Tocantinzinho, Greenstone and Salares Norte, and we will begin to receive initial ounces from the currently under construction Valentine Gold Mine in the second half of 2025. Please note, we will no longer be receiving gold ounces from Mine Waste Solutions as the cap was reached in October 2024. Our guidance has been calculated using $2,800 per ounce for gold, $31 for silver, $950 platinum, $950 for palladium and $100 iron ore. Obviously, prices are volatile and as they change, it will impact the conversion of non-gold commodities to GEOs. On the energy side, we’re using a price of $70 per barrel WTI and $3 Mcf natural gas. Using our budgeted gold price of $2,800 per ounce and the midpoint of our total GEO guidance range, we expect a 25% increase in 2025 revenue over 2024. Also, with respect to timing, we do expect to see better performance as the year progresses, so a stronger second half is expected. As we look forward over the next few years, we do forecast 2028 as the current high for GEOs sold based upon the information we have to date. For 2029, our outlook is 490,000 to 550,000 GEOs sold. Of this range, precious metals will be 375,000 to 415,000 GEOs. Main contributors will be higher production from Antamina due to access to higher-grade ore based on the latest mine plan, full year contributions from Valentine Gold and new mine starts from Stibnite Gold, Eskay Creek, Castle Mountain and Copper World. We’ve also assumed the start-up of Taca Taca with a partial year contribution. We assume mine expansions for Candelaria, Coroccohuayco at Antapaccay and Magino. For the energy assets, we do assume an increase in production over the next 5 years, resulting in an increase in GEOs. Also, we’ve held energy prices flat at $70 a barrel WTI and 7 $3 an Mcf natural gas. Overall, when you look at the outlook for GEO sold, the company has approximately 12% built-in organic growth from 2024 to 2029 at budgeted commodity prices, excluding Cobre Panama. This also assumes that no additional assets are added to the portfolio. Please note that for all outlook ranges, we have excluded Cobre Panama in our GEO sold numbers. At Cobre Panama remained in production, we would have expected deliveries and sales of between 130,000 and 150,000 GEOs annually. One additional item to note, with the legal proceedings that will move forward related to Cobre Panama, we’re expecting to incur annual costs of approximately $10 million per year. These costs will continue to be disclosed separately in our financials. Slide 13 summarizes the financial resources available to the company. When including our credit facility of $1 billion, total available capital at December 31 was $2.4 billion. After year-end, we have funded the $500 million Sibanye Western Limb Complex acquisition and expect to fund the Porcupine Royalty acquisition during second quarter. The company remains well capitalized to continue to add long-life, high-quality assets to the portfolio. And now I’ll pass it over to Joanna, and we’re happy to answer any questions.
— Operator Instructions —
The first question comes from Lawson Winder at Bank of America Securities.
Lawson Winder
Yes. Paul and Sandip, I wanted to start off with a couple of questions on Cobre Panama, if I might. So one would be just related to President Mulino and some comments that he’s made publicly, President Mulino of Panama. He indicated that he would require 8 all arbitrations to be halted prior to entering into discussions with First Quantum. I just wanted to confirm that, that also included the Franco arbitration. And does Franco have the ability to put its arbitration on hold or just temporarily put it aside in order to facilitate those negotiations if needed?
Paul Brink
Thank you, Lawson. It’s Paul. A couple of things there. Yes, they are separate arbitration processes under separate regimes. There is the ability under each of those processes that you can put the arbitration on hold for a fixed time frame. So that is a possibility, although we haven’t had any asks from any of the parties to put us on hold yet.
Lawson Winder
Okay. Perfect. And then another comment that President Mulino had made was just speaking about the economics of the prior deal negotiated under the Cortizo government relating to Cobre Panama and noting that it was unfavorable for Panama. Has FrancoNevada had any messages delivered or has any understanding what that could potentially mean for the Franco stream or whether it means anything at all? And for example, there’s been some discussion of a potential change in the ownership position. So a potential ownership position going to the country of Panama. I mean, can you comment on any potential implications for Franco there? I know it’s highly speculative, but it has been mentioned many times in the Panamanian press. I would just like to get your views.
Paul Brink
Yes. So first off, in terms of the economics, I think that the deal that was negotiated a couple of years back was positive – was a good deal for Panama. You’ll recall, in particular, it had the provisions that provided minimum payments in the order of $375 million a year, which I think for any country is a particularly strong provision. So I think there were good economics for Panama in that deal. I know there has been discussion of the country 9 potentially wanting to get a better deal. I’m not surprised by that. In terms of where that may go for Franco, we’re financiers here, not owners. So on the legalities of it, any change in ownership doesn’t change the way that our stream is calculated. Any increase in taxes in country or an increase in royalties, none of that changes the way that our royalty is written.
Lawson Winder
Yes. Okay. Very helpful. And then just two of the other streams that I’d like to ask about, it would just be helpful to get a little bit of color on specifics. So with the SSW or the SibanyeStillwater South African PGM stream, it’s closed, congratulations. And then just for Q1, when we think about the 7,000 GEOs from ’24 and then the 45-day delay before any GEOs are actually delivered to Franco. How should we think about when the first delivery might occur, whether it be Q1 or Q2? Or what would you recommend us modeling with respect to that particular stream?
Sandip Rana
Lawson, it’s Sandip. So it has closed. It closed a couple of weeks ago. The delivery from September to December for 2024, we will receive in Q1. And you’re correct, the next delivery related to 2025 production, there’s a 45-day time delay. So that will come in Q2. So for Q1, you should only be budgeting or estimating the delivery related to 2024.
Lawson Winder
Okay. Fantastic. And then just longer term, Sandip – just longer term, thinking about the ’28 and ’29 guidance, Magino and Island are now sort of moving in the direction of becoming one operation. So with Magino, there’s a 3% royalty and then with Island, there’s a 0.62% royalty. How is that delineated? Or is there the potential for those to become a combined royalty? Or would it strictly depend on from where the ore comes? And so the context here is that the idea is to eventually close the Island mill and process 10 Island ore at Magino. Is there an additive benefit here? Or is it just we have to figure out what the mix is between the 2 ore sources going forward to get to the right royalty level?
Sandip Rana
Yes. So right now, on Island, we only cover a portion of the deposit. And so – but at Magino, we cover the full land package. You’re right, they are talking about shutting the Island gold mill and expanding the Magino mill to 15,000 tonnes per day. Alamos is reviewing that right now. So once they do that, it will just be a question of where does the ore come. When we did our deal, we had budgeted 11,500 tonnes per day coming from Magino. So I think at a minimum, that’s what we should be receiving on any production going forward once they do expand the mill.
Lawson Winder
And then in your current 2028 ’29 guidance, that’s the 11,500 tonnes per day, is that correct?
Sandip Rana
Correct. Correct.
Operator
The next question comes from Cosmos Chiu at CIBC.
Cosmos Chiu
Paul and Sandip, maybe my first question is on the GEOs and how you calculate it. Could you remind us each and every quarter, how you calculate GEOs, how you convert commodities not gold into gold equivalent ounces? Is that based on the spot prices during that quarter? Or is it based on your assumption that you’ve put out beginning of the year, like today, $2,831 an ounce?
Sandip Rana
11 Cosmos, yes, we will adjust it each quarter. So essentially, at a high level, we’ll take our non-gold revenue and we will divide by the average gold price for the quarter. So obviously, you saw last year gold prices increased and it impacted the number of GEOs or diversified assets generated even though the revenue was the same as what we had expected for the year.
Cosmos Chiu
Yes. And Sandip, as you mentioned last year, you had to change it because gold prices clearly fluctuated quite a bit beyond what you had expected beginning of 2024. But for 2025 guidance, I guess my question is, could you share with us how much buffer you’ve put into that guidance? And I guess my question is, how much can it withstand in terms of volatility in commodity prices? Just given that last year, when you had to change your guidance in 2024, it was not exactly too well received. I’m just trying to see if that could happen again in 2025.
Sandip Rana
If it does happen, it’s actually a great thing because that means the gold price has gone up significantly. But our guidance range is a 60,000 ounce range. You take the midpoint, so we’ve got 30,000 GEOs to the downside. If gold price went up around 20%, I think we’d still be okay. But obviously, it’s a risk that’s part of the way we calculate guidance. Certain years, you benefit when other commodities outperform gold prices. But obviously, gold outperforming now, it is impacting the conversion. But we did run a number of sensitivities. At this stage, we’re comfortable with the range.
Cosmos Chiu
I agree. Higher gold prices is always better. In the end, it’s revenue that really matters, it’s cash flow that really matters. So I think you’re correct, Sandip. Maybe moving on to Cobre Panama. Paul, as you mentioned, the international arbitration seems to be under 12 different regimes. And I think I noticed that your meeting is October 2026. I think First Quantum had mentioned that their meeting is February 2026. Could you maybe – is there any importance that we should be aware of the different timing of the different sort of regimes that the arbitration is going under? Or is it pretty much the same?
Paul Brink
I don’t think there’s anything to read into the timing there, Cosmos. First Quantum has the option of going either under the ICC, which they’re going under, they could also go under the Canada Panama free trade agreement, which is what we’re going under. It’s MPSA that’s pursuing it under the ICC. We don’t have that option. So our only option is under the Canada Panama. The different tribunals have different time frames that they work under. The difference in timing is just because of the different processes.
Cosmos Chiu
Okay. But as you said, Paul, this is really Plan B. I think your preferred alternative as to for the operator and the government to work out something on their own, right?
Paul Brink
Absolutely. That’s always the best outcome.
Cosmos Chiu
Of course. One last question, Porcupine. Could you maybe talk about how that deal came about? Clearly, this is the only royalty streaming involvement in the Newmont divestitures. And so how did the parties come together? What’s the evolution of that deal? My other part of the question is that I see that you are providing a credit facility, Paul, as you mentioned, and an equity investment as well. More sort of full-service financing. Is that the type of deal we could expect on a go-forward basis or service on a go-forward basis? 13
Eaun Gray
Cosmos, it’s Eaun here. Happy to answer that question. I guess, first off, in terms of how it came together. Tony Makuch, we know well. A number of people within Franco-Nevada have a strong relationship with Tony. And when those assets came for sale, the obvious strategy was to work with the ideal person to revitalize them. And so we quickly spoke with Tony and formed a strategy together as to how we would back him in doing that and the rest is history. We did provide multiple tranches. And I think that’s what you will see going forward when we can do that and we find a suitable human asset will provide flexibility because capital markets aren’t always the most efficient around these kinds of things. And when we see good ability to get a good return for our shareholders, we’ll utilize other elements of the capital structure. So it’s not going to be all of what we do, but it certainly – we hope it’s a component going forward, and we’re very pleased with the results of that transaction.
Operator
The next question comes from Josh Wolfson of RBC Capital Markets.
Joshua Wolfson
First question on the 5-year guidance. I noticed the inclusion of the underground production expansion at Candelaria and then also Taca Taca. We don’t have a lot of insights as to what the production contribution could be for those opportunities. Is the company able to provide a bit more disclosure there and maybe what the volume contribution would be?
Sandip Rana
Sure. So Candelaria underground expansion, they’ve talked about it going from 14,000 tonnes per day to 22,000 tonnes per day. And they’ll likely make a decision later this year. So we – obviously, we’ve made the assumption that they will go ahead with that, 14 but they have to disclose whether they will or not. On Taca Taca, we just looked at where First Quantum is and with everything going in Argentina, it would likely be their next project that they develop. In 2029, we’ve assumed a partial ramp-up. It works out to about 4,000 GEOs to Franco in the total. So it’s not significant.
Joshua Wolfson
Got it. And then just a couple of sort of small details. So for Palmarejo, the disclosures talk about production declining in 2029. Is the – should we assume the production stays steady through 2028 versus some of the very high levels this year?
Sandip Rana
That’s correct. From 2025 to 2028, it’s pretty consistent, and then it’s about a 50% drop in 2029.
Paul Brink
And Josh, , those operations have had a great history of being able to replace ounces. So that’s what’s in the mine plan today. We hope that in the interim, there will be the ability to extend that mine plan.
Joshua Wolfson
Got it. And one last small housekeeping question. For Bald Mountain, and I know it’s not a huge asset in terms of the overall production. But just because the royalty has come up pretty strongly in recent years and the royalty can vary quite a bit depending on what land is being mined. For these new Redbird pits, any sort of idea what the royalty rate would be?
Sandip Rana
Off the top of my head, Josh, I can’t recall, I’ll have to get back to you on that. 15
Operator
The next question comes from Heiko Ihle at H.C. Wainwright.
Heiko Ihle
Paul, Sandip and team. Recent market volatility has been quite rocky. I mean, today is another fun day in the markets. I guess a bit of an open-ended question. But I mean, do you already see some impact of what’s going on just in pretty much every stock indices out there flowing on into your M&A discussions? Or is this essentially offset because gold is still sitting at $2,900?
Paul Brink
Heiko, everyone is impacted by volatility in some form. But I got to say that the gold mining industry is very fortunate in terms of – in most places, you can put your gold on a plane and fly to wherever you want and sell it wherever you want. So I’d say of all the industries, it’s probably the least impacted.
Heiko Ihle
Okay. And it doesn’t come up in conversation where people are like, "I want to get out now or soon?
Paul Brink
No, no. Certainly, we haven’t had any conversations like that.
Heiko Ihle
Building on what you almost just answered a little bit, have there been rumblings of countries trying to your words, put stuff on planes and get it out of there, make that a little bit tougher given what’s going on geopolitically right now?
Paul Brink
Not in a sense of operations cycle, although I’m sure you’re familiar that there’s been a 16 huge movement in stocks, particularly gold stocks out of London and into the U.S. And I believe there’s some of that happening in terms of copper stocks as well. But I haven’t – other than that, I haven’t heard it in any of that in other jurisdictions.
Operator
The next question comes from Daniel Major at UBS.
Daniel Major
Can you hear me, okay?
Executive
Yes.
Daniel Major
Just the first question, and you, I think, have partially answered it already, but can you just run us through the delta, the key driver for the moderation in the guidance 2029 versus 2028?
Sandip Rana
Sure. Daniel, it’s Sandip here. Really, the main adjustment is Guadalupe, Palmarejo, where you essentially – based on the mine plan that we have right now. And as Paul mentioned, the mine continues to be extended over time. So we’re hopeful that the mine life will continue to be extended. You get a 50% drop in GEOs, and that’s essentially the drop in 2029.
Daniel Major
That’s clear. And then the second question, just thinking slightly bigger picture about the Sibanye deal and the profile that you’ve provided. I mean when we look at this kind of asset towards the upper end of the cost curve, obviously, a large reserve life. But in the context of a commodity with potentially challenging longer-term fundamentals. 17 Ivanhoe has the plans to bring on the Platreef towards the end of the decade. I mean, how concerned are you about the longevity of production basis the kind of cost position of the asset and the fundamental outlook for the market?
Eaun Gray
Dan, it’s Eaun Gray again. Happy to meet you. In terms of the assets, I actually think that when you look at the cost curve, you’ll see they’re more towards the middle, especially when you account for byproducts. Relative to the Platreef, you have very significant nonPGM byproducts coming out of the UG2, which Sibanye is focused on. So things like chrome, iridium, ruthenium have kind of non-catalytic uses. So that stands to benefit these operations relatively compared to some of the others. The infrastructure, this is a market that, as I’m sure are well aware, offtake of concentrate is very limited as to where it could go. Sibanye is fully integrated. A lot of these other operations, it’s unclear whether they have all of the offtake or other things such as water and other key elements for production that are necessary whereas these are very much a fully integrated operations. We take a lot of comfort that long term, there’ll be strong producers from that basket and fully integrated nature of the operations.
Daniel Major
Okay. And then just a final one. In the last couple of calls, you’ve field the questions, and there’s been some talk about fertilizers, potash, you acquired a small option from Brazil Potash Corp. Can you give us any sense of how advanced are you in this segment of the market with other potential deals and how they rank relative to other opportunities out there?
Paul Brink
Thanks. And maybe on the strategy overall, the – you know our objective is to be the go-to gold stock, and that means always the focus is on gold and precious metals. But 18 I’ve always said also, sometimes you can take advantage of good opportunities in other commodities when they come along. And hence, we have had a diversified component over time. The opportunity with Brazil Potash there is for a very low entry point. We were able to get an option to write a royalty if and when that very large Potash project does get developed. I think it’s a high likelihood it does. This is a very attractive deposit. It’s very close to the huge agricultural area in Brazil. It’s cost advantages in terms of logistics are very substantial. So I’m very hopeful that we’ll get to exercise that option over time. Other than that, as we look at the pipeline, there – as usual, there’s a mix of what we’re looking at, precious metal and diversified. But by far, the most of it is precious metal. And so I expect that’s most likely what you’ll see as we go forward the next number of months.
Operator
The next question comes from Brian MacArthur at Raymond James.
Brian MacArthur
Most of them answered. But can I go back to the delta between ’28 and ’29. I get at Guadalupe comes down, and I guess you’re saying it’s the full 25,000 ounces. But can I confirm then on the Antacapay, you talked about it cutting back in 2028. Is that at the beginning of the year? Or is that partially through the year? I’m still trying to make up the difference between ’28 and ’29?
Sandip Rana
Yes. So Brian, you have a – it’s partway through ’28, so you’ll have a full year drop in ’29. So you do lose ounces from Antapaccay in 2029. So between Guadalupe and Antapaccay, you lose some ounces. And then on the other side, you’ve got Copper World, you’ve got Taca Taca that will pick up some of that difference. 19
Brian MacArthur
Great. And just on Candelaria, while I’m at it, the step down from 68 to 40, again, is that partially through the year in your assumptions on 2027 or at the beginning of the year?
Sandip Rana
A partial year.
Operator
The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek at Scotiabank.
Tanya Jakusconek
Great. Three questions. I just wanted to follow again on this guidance and a lot of it’s been answered, but maybe what I just would like to clarify with you is that so Palmarejo last year’s 2029 mine waste solution is gone. Is there anything else that is sort of in this time frame not contributing or is dying out over this time frame that we should be aware of?
Sandip Rana
From a materiality standpoint, Tanya, those are the two largest.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. Perfect. And then you mentioned – I wanted to understand what is your assumption for Stillwater because as you are aware, we have a quite a drop in 2025. And then – yes, go ahead.
Sandip Rana
Sorry. So Stillwater, as the operator has guided, 265,000 PGM ounces for 2025. We’ve assumed that for 3 years, and then it ramps back up subsequent to that.
Tanya Jakusconek
20 And back to that 500,000 or 600,000 GEO range?
Sandip Rana
500,000.
Tanya Jakusconek
And then just continuing on the guidance. You mentioned the Energy division is increasing over this time frame. You used to provide guidance on what the energy contribution. So if I think of your 2029 or 2028 guidance, we were able to see what percentage, 79%, 80% gold or even 76% gold. What would you put the energy as a percentage within your ’25, ’28 and ’29 guidance?
Sandip Rana
I think for ’25, we did disclose what the percentage would be energy. For ’29, off the top of my head, I’d say around 16%, 17% of GEOs.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. All right. That’s helpful. And then just the final one on guidance. You mentioned that, Sandip, that it’s going to be stronger second half. And so we understand about the Sibanye deal. Obviously, there’s some mine ramp-ups occurring. How should I be thinking first half, second half? Is it a very big difference? Is it a 45%-55%? And again, this assumes your price forecast and assuming them to be flat without movement in commodities. But if I think of it that way, is it a 45%-55%?
Sandip Rana
Just numbers I’ve looked at and our budgeted assumptions, I’d say it’s 47%-53%.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. And is it quarter-over-quarter improvement, should I be thinking of it that way as well? 21
Sandip Rana
Second quarter will be better than Q1 just because of the timing of the Sibanye, but I look to Q3 and Q4, not too far off from each other.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. All right. So those are my guidance question. My second one has to do with Cobre Panama. I just wanted to confirm again, is there any further discussions on the concentrate on site and whether that may be dealt with ahead of these decisions and/or other in 2026? Maybe, Paul, is there anything on the concentrate and remind me the size of this concentrate?
Paul Brink
Tanya, there are discussions that the company has been keen to be able to move initially, what were the remaining explosives offsite. Second is to move that concentrate off-site. They do have an agreement. They have been able to move the explosives. So discussions continue on the concentrate. It is one of the first things I’d like to get moving as the government gets more willing to discuss progress on the mine. In terms of the value of the concentrate, I think the value is in the order of $250 million is the total value of the concentrate.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. Well, that would be good if we could at least deal with the concentrate. And then just remind me again on your security on the asset. You have security at the asset level, but you do not have a parent guarantee, right? Just so that I remember this correctly.
Paul Brink
So our security, MPSA is the operating entity in Panama. So we are secured on the shares of MPSA, that operating entity as when we look at all these deals, as any good bank will 22 tell you where you want to be is as close to the asset as possible. So very happy with the security structure that we have at Cobre.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. So security of the asset, but you don’t have a corporate guarantee, right?
Paul Brink
We have undertakings up the chain that the various entities would ensure that the undertakings of MPSA are fulfilled, which is those are the usual sort of provisions that you would get from a corporate.
Eaun Gray
And maybe one thing to add, Tanya. In order to have the arbitration directly with Panama, it’s very important that you’re linked directly to the asset. So in a lot of cases, if you were just a corporate obligation, you wouldn’t be able to avail yourself of that type of protection. Just one of the benefits of that structure.
Tanya Jakusconek
As I said, hopefully, we don’t get there. Hopefully, all of this is resolved, which is best for everybody here. Okay. So maybe my last question, and I’ll just continue on the M&A side, on the transaction side, done a lot of deals on the gold front. Potash was a smaller one. So where do we stand now on the commodity mix of your – the deals that you are currently looking at in the market? Maybe we can just review size-wise, is it still this $300 million to $500 million? Is that still the deal size? And are you focused now more on precious metals? Or have you done enough precious metals? So where are we on that mix?
Eaun Gray
Tanya, it’s Eaun again. So in terms of metals, I think Paul alluded earlier to the fact that we’re still very much focused on precious metals. The vast majority of what we’re looking 23 at right now is precious metals. It doesn’t mean that there aren’t good opportunities outside of that. But in terms of just the deal flow, that’s primarily what we’re seeing at the moment. I think it’s a good time. And in terms of the complexion of the deals, what I would really say is what you saw from last year is a good reflection of kind of what we’re seeing now. Last year, obviously, was also unprecedented in terms of total dollars that we deployed, very happy about just how active we were and the investments that we made. But in terms of what they look like, very similar in terms of whether it’s size or reason for doing the deal.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. And would it also still be for asset – for development of assets? Is it still that financing options for smaller companies? Is that still the case?
Eaun Gray
Absolutely. I think a core pillar of our business development efforts is project finance. I think we’ve got a strong team to do that. We’re well placed with our balance sheet. So we continue to focus very much on trying to do significant project financing deals.
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. And then I wanted to ask just on the non-gold side. You said there could be opportunities come up. Are there opportunities in the non-gold side of your business? And if so, what sort of size of those potential transactions?
Eaun Gray
Certainly, there are opportunities. They span a range in terms of size, but probably similar to what we’ve been looking at on the precious metals side, Tanya. Some are smaller, some are more medium sized. 24
Tanya Jakusconek
Okay. So that $300 million to $500 million Okay. And would we still continue to keep focusing on the sort of non-gold commodities that you have historically looked at? Or is energy back in the game? I guess what I’m asking, would you look – would you consider energy in that non-gold component? I know you had put a pause button on it for a while.
Paul Brink
So Tanya, we’re – as usual, the diversified strategy is all around being opportunistic rather than starting with a particular commodity. So energy is the – if the right opportunity is there, we would also add, we’ve got a bit of room currently, but nothing currently active.
Operator
The next question comes from Martin Pradier at Veritas.
Martin Pradier
Can you give us some precision on what you expect from Tocantinzinho and Valentine Gold for 2025?
Sandip Rana
Sure. So for 2025, Valentine will be ramping up in the second half of the year. So it’s minimal. It’s 1,500 to 2,000 GEOs. Tocantinzinho, fully ramped up by just over 20,000 GEOs.
Martin Pradier
Okay. And I’ve seen a lot about the CRA and you continue having that, that is a recurring issue. What – do you expect some kind of decision in this year, this coming year?
Sandip Rana
Obviously, we’re a large cap taxpayer in the view of CRA. So we are constantly audited, no different than other large cap taxpayers. Obviously, we had 3 audit issues outstanding, 25 2 got resolved where they dropped the reassessments. We’ve got the transfer pricing dispute that’s ongoing. We continue to work with CRA. Would I like to resolve it this year? Absolutely. But with CRA, it’s just a question of timing and what their views are. So we continue to move forward, but no resolution at this time.
Martin Pradier
Okay. But the 2013, ’16 or something like that, isn’t that part supposed to – suppose them to reach a decision this year?
Sandip Rana
Yes. So you have to – they reassessed us, we appealed, and then you have to go through a process and work your way towards a potential court date. We’re working through that process. You have to go through Discovery, you’ve done that. Now it’s just a case of can you resolve it yourselves? Or do you end up in court? So no decision at this time.
Operator
The next question comes from John Tumazos at John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
John Tumazos
Congratulations on putting $1 billion to work and for the $55 million in Discovery stock to basically double in a month, well done. If you wanted to go to the beach or fish or play golf for the rest of the year, you’ve done a good job for the shareholders. You earned it. In all seriousness, could you tell us your criteria in terms of minimum rate of return, gold price or other? So in evaluating future deals to not reduce the average quality of the portfolio given some of the great deals you have in hand? And are your criteria primarily numerical, quantitative or is qualitative geologic inference more important to you than an NPV? 26
Paul Brink
John, I think you’ve answered the question there. The – at the end of the day, you got to be invested in good ore bodies and our overall objective is to make sure that we do that and anything that we added to the portfolio is a great quality ore body. We – any time we look at a deal and our Board constantly reminds us of this, whatever you put in your spreadsheet, it’s not going to happen. The ore bodies will develop and grow over time. Commodity prices will change over time. So the focus is on the quality of the ore bodies, getting the right ones in the portfolio. You know how we think about it, which is we’re prepared to accept the low rate of return for what you can see today on those ore bodies. But if you pick the ones that have got the best odds of getting bigger over time, that’s really where we make our return. So the focus is what are the ore bodies with great economics that we can be very comfortable we’re going to get our money back. And then what are we exposing ourselves to? What’s the potential optionality? What’s the multiple of our money that we can make if our hopes and dreams come true for the expansion of the ore bodies.
John Tumazos
In terms of the new Discovery Silver investment, is it limited to exactly the landholdings bought from Newmont at closing and the existing Dome Mill. And for example, if Tony were to buy back his old company Lake Shore Gold from Pan Am, should we assume that’s excluded from your royalty?
Eaun Gray
John, it’s Eaun here. Thank you for the kind words upfront. On the Discovery deal, I guess, first of all, what matters to us is relationships. And so we are very much trying to support Tony in his efforts. And as he’s alluded to, to the market, he has very ambitious plans for that camp and we want to be there to support him on those. We agreed some 27 partnership clauses in the agreement to provide us certain rights in certain circumstances. But we are, I would say, more as a kind of commercial and relationship very keen to help him as he looks at the one – there are many other opportunities, not just one in the area. So we’re keen to help them evaluate how he may be able to maximize value for Discovery shareholders, of which, of course, we are one. So it’s an exciting opportunity for us.
Operator
We have no further questions on the phone. I will turn the call back over to Candida Hayden.
Candida Hayden
Our first question comes from Bernie Picchi at Palisade Capital Management. Traditionally, Franco-Nevada has avoided investments in certain places, Russia, China, for example, Rule of law is critical. I was surprised by your investment in Sibanye-Stillwater. Africa has generally not been an area of interest for Franco-Nevada. Can you explain this decision further?
Paul Brink
Thanks for the question there. The – our objective is to be a low-risk way that investors can invest in the industry, gold and the benefit of exploration upside. Our approach geopolitically is you got to make sure that most of your assets are in great countries, and we’re blessed to have so many assets, Canada, U.S., Australia. There are a lot of other good mining countries in the world. And so we’re also exposed in Chile, Peru, Brazil. We do have assets in West Africa, and we have had assets in South Africa, in particular, for many years, we’ve had an interest in mine waste. It wasn’t planned this way, but actually the mine waste deal has ended. It was about 20-plus thousand ounces a year in GEOs, and we’re able to do this Sibanye deal, similar amount over the long term. So our exposure to South Africa is about the same as it was previously. 28 South Africa is different from much of Africa. It is a very well-developed mining economy. It’s got a long history. It’s got a good labor force, good suppliers, and it does have a good rule of law as opposed for mining. So in terms of the amount of exposure that we’ve got, roughly the $500 million, are comfortable in putting that in South Africa. It does have its risks and its political risks. I actually think it’s on the uptick in recent years. You had the change in government. The AMC is still leading it. But for the first time, it’s a government of National Unity. And I think that’s put some checks and balance on the AMC, and there is a good level of optimism in country that it has – there’s a change in direction in terms of the quality of government management. I think you’ve seen very practical results in terms of a turnaround in the power situation and also real good results on the ground in terms of improving the transportation infrastructure. So quite happy with that investment in South Africa. I think it’s going to do us well over time.
Candida Hayden
Our next question is also from Bernie Picchi at Palisade Capital Management. When you say there’s $250 million of concentrate on-site at Cobre Panama that you – and First Quantum would like to move, how much of that is yours versus First Quantum?
Paul Brink
We haven’t done the math recently. Depends on what the gold price is at that time, obviously, but that roughly the value there that we are due to receive is $15 million to $20 million.
Candida Hayden
Thank you, Paul. There are no further questions from the webcast. This concludes our 29 2024 year-end results conference call and webcast. We will host our Investor Day on Tuesday, March 25, 2025. The in-person presentation will be hosted at the Lumi Experience Center in Toronto at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The presentation will also be available to view virtually. Registration details are available on our website. We expect to release our first quarter 2025 results after market close on May 8, with the conference call held the following morning. Thank you for your interest in Franco-Nevada. Goodbye.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines. Copyright © 2025, S&P Global Market Intelligence. All rights reserved 30